What the Latest H-1B Lottery Data Means for International Students

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New H-1B data is out from the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), the government agency that manages the H-1B visa lottery program, and to better understand what it means for international students pursuing careers in the U.S., we spoke with Marcelo Barros, author of The International Advantage. Below is an excerpt from that conversation. Vault: Let’s jump right into it. What’s so important about this new data from USCIS? Barros: The data confirms what I’ve been telling international students for years: that the U.S. labor market increasingly rewards specialized knowledge, advanced education, and high-value skills. With 71.5 percent of H-1B winners this year holding a U.S. master's degree or higher, up from 57 percent last year, international graduate students are the clear winners in the most recent H-1B lottery. This reinforces the importance of pursuing graduate education strategically and developing expertise in fields where employers face persistent talent shortages. However, international students must understand that earning a degree doesn’t mean that a successful job search is guaranteed; the degree is only part of the equation. Positioning themselves as highly skilled professionals is what ultimately drives career success and what gives them a shot at working visas. Other data from USCIS says the number of properly submitted registrations plummeted by 38.5 percent in fiscal year 2027 vs. fiscal year 2026. What does this drop in applications mean for international students? At first glance, a nearly 40 percent decline in H-1B registrations may sound alarming, but international students shouldn’t interpret this as a sign that U.S. employers have lost interest in hiring global talent. The decline is largely the result of changes designed to make the H-1B registration process more transparent and less susceptible to abuse. In previous years, some applicants benefited from multiple registrations submitted on their behalf, which artificially inflated demand. Recent reforms shifted the process to a beneficiary-centered selection system, significantly reducing duplicate registrations and creating a more accurate picture of actual demand. Also, as we’ve discussed previously, the $100,000 H-1B filing fee mostly kept Indian IT outsourcing companies at bay. For years, international students have justifiably complained that some firms found ways to game the H-1B lottery. When registrations are inflated by duplicate or speculative filings, highly qualified international students joining the lottery faced greater uncertainty. For students and professionals who’ve invested years in their education and careers, a more merit-driven process is not too much to ask. The bottom line is U.S. employers continue to face talent shortages in critical areas such as technology, engineering, data analytics, healthcare, finance, and advanced manufacturing. Companies are still hiring international talent through the H-1B program when candidates demonstrate the skills, experience, and business value they need. USCIS also stated that this year only 17.7 percent of H-1B applications were selected in the lowest wage category. What should students take away from this statistic? This is such an important statistic, and I think it’s fantastic that USCIS released this critical piece of data. But first of all, it’s important not to overreact, or overanalyze this piece of data. With that said, if this trend continues going forward, international students securing entry-level roles that may place them in the lowest H-1B wage category may want to actively implement alternative backup plans. If the probability of selection at the lowest tier remains so low as it did this past year, then I believe international students must ask themselves, “What are my back-up plans? Do I want to return home if I don’t secure a working visa? Do I try to pursue another degree in the U.S.? Do I maybe consider Canada as an alternative?” Options need to be explored early on, and some good planning will be needed. We also do remind international students and their employers that STEM graduates normally enjoy three years of OPT, with no visa hassle. And international students are capable and hungry to make a difference and can certainly do so during their three-year OPT tenure at a U.S. firm. Smart employers understand that. We’ll be working with employers a little differently going forward so they can understand the power of this model and get the most value out of international students on OPT. How should international students interpret the shift the U.S. government has taken with respect to emphasizing attracting highly skilled workers while reducing lower-skilled labor pathways? Students who bring advanced technical, analytical, and leadership capabilities will get jobs—and hopefully beat visa odds. That has always been the case, and perhaps this is now true more than ever. Once again, international students must think beyond academics and actively build career-ready skills. And why not start doing so even before coming to the U.S.? At The International Advantage, we encourage students to develop professional networks, gain internship experience, strengthen communication skills, and double down on their international advantages and expertise so U.S. employers view them as difficult to replace. What advice would you give to international students concerned about the increasing competitiveness of the H-1B process? My advice is simple and it hasn’t changed: Focus on becoming indispensable, and that starts by fully honoring and leveraging the amazing international advantages that you as an international student bring when you choose to come to the U.S. Also, the students who succeed are rarely the ones who simply meet the minimum job requirements. When you apply for jobs, make sure you meet “preferred qualifications.” Be the candidate who can solve business problems, generate measurable results, and consistently demonstrate value. At The International Advantage, we teach students to think like business professionals rather than job seekers who desperate need sponsorship. Employers sponsor talent because they believe that talent is rare to find and will help their organization grow, innovate, or operate more effectively. When students understand this mindset, they become significantly more competitive regardless of immigration policy changes. Finally, how are the schools you partner with reacting to what’s going on in terms of helping their international students land jobs in the U.S.? I’d say it really depends on the university. In general, I feel that U.S. universities have been greatly under pressure lately, and even some of our long-term university partners have struggled lately to offer additional job search support for their international students. But then there are universities that have found ways to move forward, despite the challenging times. For example, this past February I visited the Indiana University Kelley School of Business, and had the pleasure to work directly with their international students to help them land jobs in the U.S. That was a wonderful opportunity, and I’ve recently heard some amazing job search wins from Kelley international students, which of course is very motivating for me. Similarly, the University of Notre Dame Mendoza College of Business has decided to make a substantial investment in the career development journey of their international students, and The International Advantage will join forces with Mendoza’s Graduate Programs Career Development team this September to help their incoming class of international students land jobs in the U.S. I’m very excited about the format that the Career Development team chose, as it will allow for a great deal of small group interaction with their new international students. And finally, over the summer, via webinars, The International Advantage will be working with international students enrolled at University of Maine, Colby College, and University of New England to help them hit the ground running from a job search standpoint when they arrive in the U.S. I believe that there’s enormous value in prepping our international students for the tough job search road they have in front of them before they arrive in the U.S. to join our universities here. In general, I’d say that our U.S. universities are always looking for ways to help international students achieve their job search goals, which of course is great news for international students. Marcelo Barros is the author of The International Advantage: Get Noticed. Get Hired!, which gives international students advice on how to find the job they want in the U.S. Universities interested in partnering with Barros to prepare their new, incoming class of international students to stay and work in the U.S. after graduation should get in touch with the author to book their fall job search programs. And International students interested in landing a great job in the U.S. should follow The International Advantage via LinkedIn.

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